"Fantasy" engineering firm

While talking about my "fantasies" I forgot to mention one that has been rolling around in the back of my mind for the past two or three years.  You might find it interesting.

Since I began playing around in the residential energy business I found that there is something really big missing.  I want to try to fill that need.

The current energy efficiency situation is kind of weird because most of the people resources seem to be deployed in the wrong places.  Folks who are really "into" energy efficiency go to college to learn all about it from the engineering point of view (as I did).  Then they go to work for some big architect working on big new commercial buildings (usually office buildings, but not always).  They design to various standards such as LEED and do all sorts of wonderful things.  That is great and as it should be.  But the only residential projects that they work on are new big subdivisions.  Other than that, they don't do it because the big firms who can afford a stable of specialized engineers only work on big projects.

Then there are folks like PG&E that do "free" energy audits for residences.  Basically they come in and find lights that could be replaced (and maybe even replace them for free - with the wrong ones by the way).  They point out old appliances and recommend new ones, and they recommend weather stripping around doors and windows.  This is all well and good, but pretty much useless.  Kind of like spitting in the ocean.  Doesn't really make much impact.

There are also a bunch of big solar companies pushing their products.  They charge between 2 to 4 times what the market rate should be (2 times for cash and 4 times when financed with leases).   These actually make major contributions to the energy use, but at a very expensive rate.   They get the profit, the customer gets the shaft.

The big utility companies put on some really great energy efficiency classes for free.  Great stuff, put on by people who actually do these things in real life.  However, their engineering isn't so great.  Their background is a bit sketchy, and so is their science. One popular guy has a background in leading camping trips into wilderness areas.  No specialized schooling, and no prior experience in energy - but probably a pretty good guide.  He is smart, self taught, and does good things - but is technically pretty weak. Another one that teaches a lot came from a business in residential landscape maintenance.  Another was an HVAC installer (at least this is on topic).  None are engineers, none actually understand the science behind their classes, and most give very incorrect answers to some key questions.  For some reason they actually put on very interesting and useful classes - but not what they could be.

The classes are useful and provide a lot of good information, but I suspect not much of it gets into the field to make changes.  Some does, but not enough.  Most of the teachers are in business doing the things they talk about and therefore aren't particularly interested in helping others create competition.  They give classes because it augments their income and because they are "true believers." I have been unable to engage them outside the classes when I have questions or problems, and I don't find a way to feedback what I am learning to improve the materials.  It is a good effort, but missing A LOT.

There are a few computer programs floating around to perform energy modeling for buildings.  The most popular for homes is pretty easy to use, but gives terrible answers because it is too simplified. It gives answers that are off by 50% to 100%.  It is just a fancy (actually not so fancy) spreadsheet that does the type simple steady-state modeling that I used to do by hand in 1973.  When doing it by hand it is just too difficult to do a dynamic model, and the same applies to spreadsheet models.  That approach can only use average temperatures for the year, a single sun position (with some averages to account for movement), and not much else.  Back in the day it was the only practical way to do the modeling - but that has changed.  Now there are computer programs that do hour-by-hour simulations including thermal mass and all sorts of things like variable occupancy during the day etc.  However, they are all designed to support the "big boys" with the large commercial buildings.  They can be used for smaller buildings, but it takes a lot of work for a small return.  Not only that, but most are in the stage of being "science experiments."  The "engines" are produced by the Government (NREL) represent the best science in the world, but don't include good user interfaces.  They all require a very large upfront effort to figure out how to use them, and the user interfaces contain many very large holes and bugs.  The intent was to develop the science engine and let private industry develop apps to run the engine.  A few companies have done so, but they are VERY expensive.  Far too expensive for small firms to afford - only the big boys get to play with them.  The rest of us have to make do.

Then there are the folks that are in the residential energy business (HCAC and insulation contractors).  They usually got their training from "good old boy" on-the-job instructions, and do most of their designs by "rule of thumb."  They sort of comply with the California energy codes (Title 24), but only sort of.  In addition, Title 24 is only the "worst allowable" situation and it is pretty bad.  Much better results can be achieved for much lower initial and operational costs.  However - to really do what is needed becomes a problem because the better solutions often violate the code.  The reason for this is an entirely different discussion.  It is a mixture of tradition, poor science, lobbying by the manufacturers and just plain sloppiness.

So - now to my fantasy.  I want to set up an engineering office in Davis (because it is convenient to me) dedicated to performing in-depth energy audits and designing of retrofit options that result in NET Zero energy use at something close to an "optimal" cost - that results in less cost than not doing the work.  This could be for new, remodeled, or repaired buildings and systems.  My target structures would be residential or small commercial (the smaller structures that are being ignored by the big boys).

I envision 3-5 engineers, 4-5 engineering students (or new grads) from UCD, some staff and collaboration with professors and utility professionals.  For example, I know of a few questions that could really use some research that might make good senior projects or maybe more.

Customers would be home owners, general contractors, architects, HVAC contractors or anyone else that is interested.  We would do detailed audits, perform detailed energy simulations, and develop detailed specifications for use by  contractors.  We would also monitor work in progress and verify that everything is up to snuff when the work is completed. We would put on classes and other means of teaching other how to do the work and designing.   Hopefully, we will find a way to work with the NREL and California software gurus to correct and streamline the user interfaces so they work better. We would also design solar, swimming pools and other energy related systems.

The end of this will be much better designed projects, much better installations, and reduced costs to the customers and the contractors.    The students would get critical "hands-on" experience in the field and with the software, and we would show the world that this stuff can not only be done, but that it is easy and cost effective.  It turns out that all of the necessary science has been done, the products are readily available and inexpensive, and the codes are generally workable.  The existing ACCA (Air Conditioning Contractors of America) standards, guidelines and best practices as well as ASHRAE standards make sense and are in place. The necessary software is developed and available for free.

All that needs to be done now is to do it.  In answer to the question, "are we there yet?" - the answer is "yes, open the door and enjoy."  I have done some calculations that show that if all the homes and small commercial buildings in California were built and updated appropriately the State could stop using ANY fossil fuels, nuclear and large wind or solar installations.  We have enough renewable resources to meet our needs.  And that could be done at a very large savings to the homeowners and users.  It would put a bunch of money in their pockets to be spent elsewhere, reduce the carbon footprint of the entire state to zero, all by doing simple well known improvements.

I want all of this to be free to the users (whoever they are).  Walk into our offices and you will get the full range of services free of charge.  I am convinced that in order to get past the current "traditional" approach it is going to be necessary to provide the services for free.  I think it will quickly become obvious that it is easy enough that others can do it - and maybe even charge for the services so that it doesn't have to be free forever.  It will also have to come with a guarantee of some sort so that if for example an HVAC design doesn't work, but is installed according to our specifications, then our insurance fixes it - not the HVAC contractor.  Contractors aren't willing to take a chance on new (to them) ideas.

To do all of this will cost a little over $1M a year to pay for the engineers, students, office staff, office, equipment, etc.  So I am looking for a "donor" that would like to do this "experiment" for maybe 4 years to start with.  $1M a year for four years is only four million dollars to do something worthwhile.  It is a lot to you and me, but it isn't a lot to a whole lot of people.  I don't want it to be dependent upon grants or anything like that because that quickly becomes the most expensive, and time consuming, part of the project - hunting for grants.  We don't want to get tangled up in tax regulations, grant applications or anything like that.  It would be a "for profit" organization that happens to lose a lot of money.  I don't know the final form of the business, but I want to stay away from changing what we do to meet tax codes that don't really apply.

So, just in case you run across someone with a few million burning a hole in their pocket, I have some ideas of some really interesting, fun and important things that they could do with it.  I don't know anyone, and haven't really gone out to sell the idea (except like this to friends explaining a dream - who knows, maybe someone will know just the right person).